U.S. Rail Traffic: Carloads Up, Intermodal Down in Mid-January

U.S. rail traffic edged up 1.1% driven by carloads, while intermodal dipped. Grain and minerals surged, yet consumer goods demand softened, signaling an economic shift.

January 22, 2026 11:39 pm

🛑 Key Takeaways:

U.S. rail traffic rose 1.1%, as a 3.9% surge in carloads offset a 1.1% decline in intermodal units.
Grain (+24.5%) and nonmetallic minerals (+14.7%) led carload growth, while intermodal containers and trailers fell to 280,602 units.
The data suggests industrial and agricultural commodity demand is robust, while containerized goods traffic, often tied to consumer spending, is lagging.

WASHINGTON D.C. – U.S. freight rail traffic posted a modest 1.1% gain for the week ending January 17, 2026, reaching 505,385 total units. The growth was entirely driven by a 3.9% rise in carload volume, which masked a 1.1% drop in intermodal traffic, according to data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR). This mixed result represents a significant slowdown from the prior week, which saw strong year-over-year gains of 16.7% in carloads and 4.4% in intermodal volume.

Metric	Data (Week Ending Jan 17, 2026 vs 2025)
Total U.S. Rail Traffic	505,385 units (+1.1%)
Carload Volume	224,783 carloads (+3.9%)
Intermodal Volume	280,602 containers & trailers (-1.1%)
Top Gaining Commodity	Grain: 25,786 carloads (+24.5%)
Top Losing Commodity	Motor Vehicles & Parts: 13,306 carloads (-3.3%)
Mexican Intermodal	15,430 units (+60.9%)

Operational & Technical Details

The divergence between freight categories was pronounced. Of the 10 carload commodity groups tracked, three posted gains. Grain led with a 24.5% increase to 25,786 carloads. It was followed by nonmetallic minerals, up 14.7% to 28,232 carloads, and metallic ores and metals, up 12.9% to 19,973. Declines were led by motor vehicles and parts, which fell 3.3% to 13,306 carloads, and chemicals, which slipped 2.2% to 33,412. Coal traffic saw a minor 0.7% dip to 58,641 carloads.

Across North America, performance varied. Canadian railroads reported declines in both carloads (-1.9% to 90,331) and intermodal units (-2.6% to 71,246). In contrast, Mexican railroads posted exceptional growth, with carloads up 13.8% to 12,780 and intermodal volume surging 60.9% to 15,430 units.

Market Impact Analysis

The split between rising carload traffic and falling intermodal volume points to a bifurcated freight economy. Strength in grain, minerals, and metals suggests healthy activity in the agricultural and heavy industrial sectors. However, the decline in intermodal traffic, which primarily consists of containers from ports and trailers for domestic retail, indicates continued softness in consumer goods demand. This aligns with external reports of a weak freight market carrying over from 2025. While trucking capacity has tightened, this week’s rail data suggests a broad-based demand recovery has not yet materialized, particularly for finished goods.

FAQ: Quick Facts

How did U.S. rail traffic perform overall for the week ending Jan 17?

Total combined traffic rose 1.1% year-over-year to 505,385 carloads and intermodal units.

What was the biggest driver of the weekly change?

Carload traffic was the sole driver of growth, increasing by 3.9%. This was led by a 24.5% surge in grain carloads. Intermodal traffic declined by 1.1%, acting as a drag on the total figure.

How does this compare to the previous week’s performance?

This week’s 1.1% total growth is a sharp deceleration from the week ending January 10, which saw a 16.7% increase in carloads and a 4.4% increase in intermodal volumes.