US Rail Traffic Dips 4% to Start 2026: Intermodal Down 5.1%

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. freight railroads started the new year with a notable downturn in traffic, reporting a 4% decrease in total volumes for the week ending January 3, 2026, compared to the same period last year. This decline, driven significantly by a 5.1% drop in intermodal units, comes amid a complex and conflicting freight market environment characterized by soaring trucking spot rates and falling diesel prices.

Main Body:

According to the latest industry figures, total U.S. rail traffic for the first reporting week of 2026 stood at 404,293 carloads and intermodal units. The carload segment, which represents traditional bulk and merchandise freight, saw volumes dip by 2.8% to 192,665 units. The more volatile intermodal sector, comprising shipping containers and truck trailers, experienced a sharper decline of 5.1%, falling to 211,628 units. Despite the overall negative trend, two key carload commodity groups demonstrated resilience, posting year-over-year increases. Chemicals were up 2.3% to 32,493 carloads, and grain shipments rose by a modest 0.9% to 21,022 carloads.

The significant 5.1% drop in intermodal traffic is particularly striking when viewed against the backdrop of the over-the-road trucking market. Recent data from FTR Transportation Intelligence shows that truck spot rates for both dry van and refrigerated equipment hit multi-year highs in late December. Refrigerated spot rates surged to their highest level since February 2022, while dry van rates reached a peak not seen since early 2023. Typically, high trucking costs and tight capacity push shippers toward more economical rail intermodal services. The decline in rail volumes despite these conditions suggests that shippers may be prioritizing speed and service reliability over cost, or that overall consumer goods demand is softer than anticipated to start the year.

Further complicating the freight landscape are conflicting cost and investment signals. The national average price for diesel has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, reducing trucking’s operational costs and narrowing the cost-advantage of rail. Simultaneously, preliminary data for December showed a massive surge in net orders for new Class 8 trucks, with FTR reporting a 108% month-over-month jump. While this points to fleet optimism and investment in future capacity, some analysts caution that order volumes for many customers remain 20-30% below historical patterns, indicating continued uncertainty in the broader manufacturing and transportation sectors.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. rail volumes began 2026 with a 4% year-over-year decline, led by a sharp 5.1% drop in intermodal traffic.
• The intermodal slowdown occurred despite trucking spot rates reaching their highest levels in several years, indicating a potential preference for speed over cost among shippers.
• Conflicting market signals, including falling diesel prices and a surge in new truck orders, create an uncertain competitive environment for rail freight in the first quarter.

Editor’s Analysis

The initial rail traffic data for 2026 presents a critical puzzle for the freight industry. The divergence between soaring truck spot rates and falling intermodal volumes is the most telling indicator. It suggests that the value proposition of rail intermodal is being challenged not just by price—where falling diesel erodes its advantage—but by service performance. Shippers are clearly willing to pay a significant premium for trucking’s speed and flexibility, likely driven by lean inventory strategies and the need to meet precise delivery windows. While the stability in core carload commodities like chemicals provides a solid foundation, the battle for discretionary freight on the intermodal network will define the rail sector’s success in the coming months. Railroads must intensify their focus on improving service reliability and transit times to prove they are a viable alternative, not just a cheaper one.

Frequently Asked Questions

What were the total US rail freight volumes for the week ending January 3, 2026?

U.S. freight railroads transported a total of 404,293 carloads and intermodal units, which represents a 4% decrease compared to the same week in 2025.

Why is the decline in intermodal rail traffic considered significant?

The 5.1% drop is significant because it happened at a time when spot market rates for trucking, a direct competitor, were at multi-year highs. This suggests that factors beyond simple cost, such as service speed or weaker consumer demand, are influencing shipping decisions.

Did any parts of the rail freight market show growth?

Yes, two carload commodity groups posted year-over-year increases. Chemical carloads grew by 2.3% to 32,493, and grain carloads increased by 0.9% to 21,022.