North American Rail Reports U.S. 3.2% Volume Decline Early Feb

North American Rail Freight Volumes for Early February 2026

U.S. freight railroads transported 486,854 carloads and intermodal units during the week ending February 7, 2026, a 3.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. This total volume decline was observed across both carload and intermodal segments. In contrast, rail volumes in Canada and Mexico recorded strong year-over-year increases for the same week.

U.S. Operational Performance and Commodity Analysis

The downturn in U.S. rail traffic was driven by decreases in both primary segments. Weekly carloads totaled 208,408, a decline of 4.8% from the previous year. Intermodal volume, consisting of containers and trailers, reached 278,446 units, representing a smaller decrease of 2%.

An analysis of the 10 carload commodity groups reveals a mixed performance. Three groups posted volume increases compared with the same week in 2025. Petroleum and petroleum products saw the largest gain, rising 10.2% to 10,950 carloads. Grain shipments increased by 3.2% to 22,577 carloads, and motor vehicles and parts grew by 2.6% to 16,011 carloads.

Conversely, several key commodity groups experienced volume reductions. Coal, a high-volume commodity, decreased by 6.2% to 53,445 carloads. Nonmetallic minerals posted a decline of 11.7% to 24,637 carloads. The sharpest percentage drop was recorded in miscellaneous carloads, which fell by 18.9% to 7,320 units.

Market Context and Modal Competition

While U.S. railroads saw a weekly volume decrease, rail operators in Canada and Mexico reported growth. Canadian railroads registered 87,967 carloads, up 6.4%, and 69,979 intermodal units, up 2.1%. Mexican railroads reported exceptional growth, with carloads increasing 69.1% to 13,348 and intermodal units rising 51.3% to 13,364.

The U.S. rail traffic figures emerge within a complex logistics market characterized by tightening trucking capacity and rising road-haul rates. This market dynamic improves the competitive position of Class I railroads such as CSX Corp, Union Pacific, and BNSF. According to freight broker C.H. Robinson, trucking capacity is contracting as smaller carriers exit the market and federal oversight of driver licensing and safety intensifies.

This shift presents a strategic opportunity for railroads to recapture freight from the trucking sector. BMO Capital Markets analyst Fadi Chamoun noted that a constrained truckload market is positioned to support domestic intermodal volumes and pricing. Typically, intermodal rail requires a cost advantage of approximately 15% to win freight from trucks. However, as truck rates increase, rail becomes economically viable on more routes, including shorter-haul corridors of 750 miles.

Outlook

The current pressure on highway freight capacity provides a favorable backdrop for U.S. railroads to pursue market share gains in the domestic intermodal sector. Future volume performance will be contingent on the persistence of these trucking market conditions and the demand trajectory for core industrial commodities.