AAR Reports 4.9% US Rail Traffic Growth in September

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Association of American Railroads recorded 535,663 total carloads and intermodal units moved across U.S. rail systems for the week ending September 19, up 4.9% from the corresponding week in 2025. Intermodal movements expanded 6.9% year-on-year to 301,456 containers and trailers, while carloads increased 2.4% to 234,207 units. Cross-border North American operations mirrored this growth, led by double-digit volume gains across Mexican freight lines.

What Is the Full Scope of This Development?

Total North American rail volume reached 727,789 carloads and intermodal units during the week ending September 19 across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Within the U.S. network, seven of 10 tracked commodity categories posted net gains, paced by a 15.1% rise in metallic ores and metals to 23,420 carloads and a 12.5% increase in petroleum products to 11,976 carloads. Nonmetallic minerals grew 7% to 33,639 carloads, offsetting volume contractions in grain (down 7.7% to 21,369 carloads), coal (down 3.1% to 58,171 carloads), and automotive shipments (down 0.8% to 16,636 carloads). In neighboring markets, Canadian carriers handled 92,935 carloads (up 3%) and 72,868 intermodal platforms (up 0.3%), while Mexican operators recorded increases of 16.9% in carloads to 13,237 and 21.9% in intermodal traffic to 13,095 units.

Key Development Data

How Does This Compare to Industry Trends?

The 4.9% volume expansion in mid-September reflects an accelerating pace of growth compared to earlier periods in the operating year. Weekly AAR figures showed a 2.4% year-on-year increase to 526,410 total units for the week ending August 1, and a 0.5% gain to 515,921 units for the week ending March 28 (Source: AAR, 2026). Globally, containerized freight remains the fastest-growing rail segment with an expected compound annual growth rate of 6.23% through 2031, while dry bulk accounts for 41.75% of overall market volume (Source: Mordor Intelligence, 2025). In contrast to North American growth, European freight corridors face financial constraints; Hungarian operators experienced an 11.8% unit cost spike in 2025 while freight rates rose only 2.0%, producing a 4.7% real-term decline against local services inflation (Source: Hungrail, 2025). Independent verification of rail traffic volumes for October 10, 2026 was not available at time of publication.

Editor’s Analysis

Diverging commodity volumes demonstrate that the freight network is navigating a durable transition away from traditional bulk coal toward containerized industrial flows. This shifting traffic profile underpins structural consolidation moves, such as the December 2025 merger application submitted by Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern to capture long-haul highway conversions (Source: Surface Transportation Board, 2025). Rail carriers that optimize operational velocity for domestic intermodal will secure a larger share of a global freight sector projected to reach USD 388.5 billion in 2026 (Source: Future Market Insights, 2025).

FAQ

Q: What primary factor drove the annual increase in U.S. rail volumes?
A: A 6.9% increase in intermodal volume to 301,456 units propelled the overall gain, accompanied by double-digit growth in metallic ores and petroleum products. These increases compensated for ongoing decreases in coal and grain shipments.

Q: What is the long-term revenue forecast for the global rail freight industry?
A: The sector is projected to expand from USD 370.0 billion in 2025 to USD 602.7 billion by 2036, maintaining a 4.5% compound annual growth rate (Source: Future Market Insights, 2025). Intermodal container transport is expected to drive the largest portion of new cargo additions over this period.

Q: How did Canadian and Mexican freight networks perform during the same period?
A: Mexican railways registered substantial growth, with carloads rising 16.9% to 13,237 and intermodal climbing 21.9% to 13,095 units. Canadian operators reported more moderate growth, with carloads expanding 3.0% to 92,935 and intermodal units edging up 0.3% to 72,868.