US Rail Traffic Jumps 9.7%: Signals End to Freight Recession

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. freight railroads have kicked off 2026 with a significant surge in traffic, posting a 9.7% year-over-year increase for the first full week of the year, a dramatic reversal of the declining volumes seen at the close of 2025. The robust growth, driven by a remarkable 16.7% jump in carload traffic, signals a potential end to the prolonged freight recession and aligns with industry expert predictions for a stronger market this year.

Main Body:

For the week ending January 10, 2026, U.S. railroads transported a combined 510,457 carloads and intermodal units, according to the latest data. The impressive performance was led by a substantial 16.7% increase in carloads, which reached 232,803 units. Intermodal traffic, comprising containers and trailers, also saw positive growth, rising 4.4% to 277,654 units. An analysis of commodity groups reveals broad-based strength, with nine of the ten categories posting year-over-year gains. Notable increases were seen in coal, which surged 27.2% to 66,374 carloads; nonmetallic minerals, up 29.4% to 28,755; and grain, which climbed 23.3% to 26,204 carloads. The only commodity to register a decline was forest products, which fell 8.7%.

The positive trend in the United States was mirrored by remarkable growth in Mexico, while Canadian railways reported a slight downturn. Mexican railroads posted a stunning 41.5% increase in carloads to 13,348 and an even more dramatic 65.5% jump in intermodal units to 14,454. In contrast, Canadian railroads reported a 4.2% decrease in carloads for the week, totaling 87,561, and a 1% dip in intermodal units to 70,664. This mixed North American picture highlights the regional dynamics at play, with the U.S. and Mexico leading a powerful start to the year.

This early 2026 surge provides a welcome boost to an industry that faced headwinds at the end of last year. Reports from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) indicated that U.S. rail volumes saw declines to close out 2025, with intermodal shipments falling 3.4% in December, the fourth consecutive monthly drop. The current data supports the optimistic sentiment expressed by logistics industry leaders, such as Echo Global Logistics CEO Doug Waggoner, who recently noted a widespread expectation that 2026 would be a better year for freight. Experts believe factors like stabilizing interest rates could stimulate key sectors like manufacturing and housing, ultimately fueling a sustained recovery from what has been described as a “three-plus year freight recession.”

Key Takeaways

• Strong Rebound: The 9.7% total traffic increase marks a significant turnaround from the negative growth trend observed in late 2025.
• Carloads Lead the Charge: The 16.7% surge in carloads, particularly in industrial commodities like coal and minerals, suggests a revival in core economic sectors.
• North American Divergence: While U.S. and Mexican rail volumes show exceptional growth, Canadian railroads began the year with a slight decrease, indicating varied regional economic momentum.

Editor’s Analysis

The robust rail traffic figures for the first week of 2026 are more than just a data point; they are a strong indicator of a potential economic inflection point. The outsized growth in carloads compared to the more modest rise in intermodal is particularly telling. While intermodal often reflects consumer spending and import levels, carload commodities like coal, grain, and nonmetallic minerals are the building blocks of the industrial economy. This suggests the current recovery may be driven by a fundamental resurgence in manufacturing, energy, and construction, rather than just retail inventory adjustments. If this trend holds, it could signal the end of the long-standing freight recession and usher in a period of sustained growth for the entire North American logistics network.

Frequently Asked Questions

What were the total U.S. rail traffic figures for the first week of January 2026?

For the week ending January 10, 2026, U.S. freight railroads hauled 510,457 carloads and intermodal units, a 9.7% increase compared to the same week in 2025.

Which commodity groups saw the largest increases in volume?

The largest year-over-year increases were in nonmetallic minerals (+29.4%), coal (+27.2%), and grain (+23.3%).

How do these figures compare to the end of 2025?

These numbers represent a significant reversal. According to AAR reports, U.S. rail volumes, especially intermodal, were in decline during the final months of 2025, making this strong start to 2026 particularly noteworthy.