NRF Reports U.S. Port Imports Drop Below 2025 in Fall

WASHINGTON – The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker report released June 8, 2026, projects U.S. container imports will exceed 2025 levels in June before declining below last year’s volumes in the fall, driven by inventory pre-positioning ahead of expected August tariff and fuel cost increases. The forecast arrives as U.S. rail carload and intermodal volumes posted strong May gains, extending a months-long growth streak across multiple commodity groups, according to the Association of American Railroads.

What Does This Regulation Cover?

The tariff policy, announced by President Trump in April 2025 and commonly referred to as “Liberation Day” tariffs, imposed sweeping duties on a wide range of imported consumer and industrial goods. This policy triggered a sharp import volume collapse in spring 2025, which now creates a low base for year-over-year comparisons in 2026. The ongoing conflict in Iran continues to compound economic uncertainty, contributing to higher inflation expectations and influencing retailer inventory strategies, according to NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.

Key Regulatory Data

How Does This Compare to Global Standards?

While the tariff-driven front-loading pattern mirrors historical episodes such as the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade war, the current freight landscape reveals a notable split between soft port import forecasts and vigorous domestic rail performance. AAR data shows May 2026 U.S. rail intermodal volumes increased for the 15th consecutive month, with total carloads up 4.2% year-over-year, powered by chemicals, grain, and other industrial sectors (Source: Association of American Railroads, 2026). In contrast, the Global Port Tracker points to a fall import dip. Complementing the rail strength, Covenant Logistics reported that truckload contract rates remain above comparable 2024 and 2025 levels, indicating sustained pricing power in ground freight despite the import slowdown projection (Source: Covenant Logistics, 2026). This pattern diverges from typical tariff-induced demand shocks and suggests that domestic goods-producing activity is absorbing inventory at a faster rate than container port data alone would indicate.

Editor’s Analysis

The contrast between softening port projections and rising rail volumes underscores a bifurcated North American freight market: international ocean freight faces headwinds from tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, while domestic ground transportation is buoyed by resilient manufacturing and agricultural activity. For rail operators, broad-based carload growth in industrial commodities signals that the goods-producing side of the U.S. economy remains on firmer footing than the import-dependent retail sector. This pattern, if sustained through the second half of 2026, could accelerate modal shifts and inventory localization strategies among shippers seeking to mitigate tariff exposure (Source: NRF, AAR, 2026).

FAQ

Q: Why are U.S. container port import volumes projected to drop in fall 2026?
A: The projected decline results from earlier front-loading of merchandise ahead of expected August tariff and fuel price increases, combined with a high year-ago comparison period when imports were already elevated. NRF’s Jonathan Gold also cited the Iran conflict as a source of persisting inflation and economic uncertainty.

Q: How much are rail freight volumes growing in 2026?
A: U.S. rail carloads rose 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, and intermodal units extended a 15-month streak of gains, according to the Association of American Railroads. Growth has been broad across agriculture, chemicals, and consumer-related freight.

Q: What does the tariff policy mean for domestic freight rates?
A: Tariff-related demand surges typically push freight rates higher in the short term as retailers expedite shipments. Covenant Logistics’ latest data shows truckload contract rates are already above 2024 and 2025 levels, reflecting pricing strength in the trucking sector, though exact long-term rate impacts have not been officially confirmed.