North American Rail Reports U.S. Traffic Down 3.2%; Mexico Up 69.1%

North American Rail Freight Traffic Report: Week Ending Feb. 7

U.S. freight railroads transported a total of 486,854 carloads and intermodal units during the week ending February 7, a 3.2% decrease compared to the same week in 2025. This volume comprised 208,408 carloads and 278,446 intermodal units. The figures reflect a complex market environment where overall volumes are down despite specific commodity growth.

U.S. Traffic Breakdown

The decline in U.S. rail volume was driven by a 4.8% drop in carload traffic, which totaled 208,408 units. Intermodal volume, consisting of containers and trailers, experienced a more moderate decline of 2.0%, reaching 278,446 units for the week. The performance varied widely across different commodity segments.

Three of the ten carload commodity groups registered year-over-year increases. Petroleum and petroleum products saw the largest gain, rising 10.2% to 10,950 carloads. Grain shipments increased by 3.2% to 22,577 carloads, and motor vehicles and parts traffic grew by 2.6% to 16,011 carloads.

Conversely, several key commodity groups posted volume decreases. Coal traffic, a high-volume category, fell by 6.2% to 53,445 carloads. Nonmetallic minerals experienced a decline of 11.7% to 24,637 carloads, while miscellaneous carloads recorded the sharpest drop at 18.9%, falling to 7,320 units.

Regional and Market Context

In other parts of North America, rail traffic showed strong growth. Canadian railroads reported 87,967 carloads for the week, a 6.4% increase, and 69,979 intermodal units, up 2.1%. Mexican railroads posted exceptional growth, with carloads increasing 69.1% to 13,348 and intermodal units rising 51.3% to 13,364.

The U.S. rail traffic decline occurs within a shifting logistics market characterized by tightening trucking capacity and increasing road-haul rates. According to freight broker C.H. Robinson, trucking capacity is constricting as smaller carriers exit the market and federal oversight on driver licensing and safety intensifies. This dynamic improves the competitive position of rail operators like CSX Corp, Union Pacific, and BNSF, which are seeking to recapture freight from the highway.

This market shift is strategically relevant for intermodal rail, which competes directly with long-haul trucking. As truck rates rise, rail becomes a more cost-effective option on a wider range of routes. Analysis from freight brokerage Traffix indicates that while rail typically requires a 15% cost advantage to attract freight, rising truck prices make rail competitive even on shorter hauls of approximately 750 miles, routes where trucking has traditionally dominated.

Outlook

The current pressure on trucking capacity and pricing presents a structural opportunity for U.S. railroads to increase domestic intermodal volumes. Operators are positioned to gain market share from road transport, especially if freight rates on highways remain elevated.